Turespaña calls for caution before a volatile 2015
The growth in foreign tourist arrivals continue into the first quarter of 2015, according to the latest report by Coyuntur Turespaña . However, the quarterly newsletter of tourism trends warns that “these provisions must be taken with caution” before the volatile economic and political conditions that may affect the main markets.
Recall that Spain won in 2014 for the second year beat its record in international tourist arrivals , with 64.9 million visitors, up 7.1% .
“In the first quarter of 2015 is expected to entry to Spain of international tourists exceeded 10.1 million passengers received in the same quarter of 2014, “says Coyuntur.
In any case, these forecasts will be influenced by the changing environment “characterized by a significant part by the falling price of oil , maintaining low interest rates , the depreciation of the euro will improve exports and international economic improvement overall. ” See also The euro and oil drops to levels of five years ago .
“But then there are threats such as high indebtedness of states, the uncertainty in the short term due to electoral events in the UK, Portugal and Spain, and terrorist threats to Western countries , most concern after the attacks in Paris in January “adds Coyuntur.
The newsletter also notes that “in early 2015, the European Central Bank implements quantitative easing or “Quantitative Easing”, ie possibility of massive purchases of sovereign debt. This expansion measure in monetary policy to revive the economy Eurozone, could favor the increased demand and consumption . ”
And moreover, “the economic growth forecasts for 2015 of the main tourist markets for Spain are positive , according to the latest report from November, the European Commission “.
In this regard, the UK economy will grow the most (+ 2.7%) , followed by Germany (+ 1.1%) . The report speaks of a scenario of slow recovery with low inflation .
With all these factors, the following points Coyuntur forecast tourist arrivals to Spain in the first quarter of 2015 by geographical areas:
Northern Europe .- UK will continue consolidating as the main target for Spain. Weakness in the Nordic markets.
Central Europe .- growth for Germany and the Netherlands, Belgium and significant increase in moderation Switzerland.
Southern Europe .- the French market remains a significant growth rate. Moreover significant increases in arrivals from Italy and Portugal will be given.
Eastern Europe continue falling .- tourists from the Russian market, largely due to falling oil prices, their main source of income, and significant depreciation of the ruble against the euro.
América.- North American market advances are expected. Canada shows signs of recovery.
Latin America .- continue progress in arrivals of Mexican and Brazilian tourists, and recoil of the Argentine market.
Asia-Pacific .- positive outlook for Asian markets, with widespread increases in arrivals from Japan, China and Korea.